Bird Flu True To Form? A Pandemic Scenario

Lee tried to stifle a sneeze but couldn’t Invisible to the
naked eye, a cloud of almost five thousand virus-filled droplets
launched into the air at some 150 km/ hour or roughly 100 mph
Some passengers in the wide-body Airbus frowned The Hong Kong
to London flight was long and no one wanted to catch a cold
Lee planned to fill every waking moment of his stay in London A
concert at the Millennium Dome, dinners at some of the finest
hotels, shopping in crowded malls – “What a chance,” Lee
thought All he had to concentrate on was a few hours in front
of the International Board It was his job to present sales
trends in China to the bosses who were also winging it towards
Heathrow, one of the world’s busiest airports “The global
executives will get only good news from me,” figured Lee “Pity
I don’t feel better “
The Diagnosis
Lee was exhausted He had a cough, scratchy throat, runny nose
and muscle aches A fever started but it wasn’t until Lee began
having difficulties breathing that he decided to get help
Doctors huddled in subdued discussion Experts were rushed in
It was finally determined that Lee’s body was fighting
strenuously against two viruses Lee had caught a highly
infectious Influenza A virus – a flu bug However, at much the
same time he had also picked up a second virus called H5N1 The
two viruses had mixed their genes and formed a hybrid Since
this was now a radically new pathogen, Lee had no immunity to
it
Lee was not the only one in this fight Infected passengers from
Lee’s plane from Hong Kong had connecting flights to major
cities in most continents The global executives Lee had
addressed at the office had also flown home diseased Sadly,
some of the medical staff where Lee was diagnosed had also
caught it not to mention the crowds Lee had interacted with at
concerts, restaurants and on shopping sprees The so-called Bird
Flu or Avian Influenza had indeed spread its wings It was the
start of the first flu pandemic of the 21st century
The News
Had Lee or any of the others known in time, they would have
taken anti-viral drugs hoping to block or at least slow down the
replication of the virus At least the severity of some symptoms
might have been eased not to mention a reduction in the duration
of sickness But time had run out – anti-viral medication needed
to be taken within 48 hours of the first stages of the disease
It wasn’t long before Lee was put on a respirator in quarantine
It also wasn’t long before the media found out Lee had Bird Flu
The public became nervous The number of flu patients – real or
imaginary – multiplied dramatically but nurses and hospital
staff were strangely missing using overdue holiday time or
just not showing up for work at all It was announced that
schools, restaurants, and non-essential businesses would be
closed No deadline was given – no one knew for sure how long
the measures would have to be in place
The Public Announcement
Wisely, the public was advised to stock up on food and water
Newspapers advised people to stock up on toothpaste, toilet
paper and treasure (cash) People were told to shop at off-peak
hours and public transport was ordered to run 24 hours per day
But despite warnings to the contrary, doctor’s offices,
hospitals and clinics were overrun Faces masked in paper waited
for hours in front of pharmacies in hope of getting relief
Despite clear instructions from health officials, panic broke
out as folk finally fathomed that at best only one third of the
population had access to anti-viral drugs In rural areas and
smaller towns, there wasn’t any chance at all
The Short-term Havoc
Rumors and half-truths began to circulate causing public outcry
and protests Because the protests only helped spread the flu,
quarantines were set in place The public was told to stay at
home indefinitely Vibrant cities screeched to a halt as public
transport shut down Streets stank as garbage piled up Shops
were looted and in some cases those caught coughing were stoned
Safety services (fire, police, ambulance) were disrupted, fires
burned out of control Cross-border travel was curtailed killing
tourism and all international sports events were cancelled Food
imports were banned creating shortages of meat, vegetables and
wheat Folk with chronic medical illnesses couldn’t get their
medications Soap and disinfectants – perhaps the simplest and
most effective fight against the spread of disease – were in
short supply; no one had thought to stock-pile soap
The Controversy
Local governments and health organizations began to squabble
over who had the power to do what The question was of
legalities: who would control distribution of anti-viral drugs
and who would receive those drugs? Army barracks received
attention but prisoners were ignored Families with pets were
labeled as ‘higher risk’ groups but no-one knew if these
families should receive more help or less As in-fighting became
more severe, decision processing became more difficult Who
should give the daily press briefings? Who would organize mass
cremation? Who would facilitate conferences for global medical
meetings? The list grew rapidly
The Waves
The first wave of the pandemic was over in three months time but
not the shock Bacterial disease such as cholera multiplied
rapidly with catastrophic results across Africa and Asia The
longer-term, global recession began with the realization that
supply-lines, manufacturing and food-production chains were
desperately weakened through labor loss Medical facilities were
terribly understaffed As usual, the poor had little chance of
aid at all And then came the second wave of Avian flu It took
over a year before the waves of sickness and death became
controllable
Lee actually survived it all Although he “started” the
pandemic, he also helped “end” it Doctors used his blood to
find the initial vaccine Since Lee was also now immune, he not
only volunteered to help where he could and also founded the
World Association of Sensible Hygiene (WASH) More importantly,
Lee and others like him helped disrupted societies regain their
faith and hope and love Since this was pandemic number 11 in
the last 300 years, history had taught that it was inevitable
that individuals and communities and countries would bounce back
fairly quickly But a bitter question remained Would Lee and
the rest of the world be better prepared for the next pandemic?
Lee wondered that too as he bordered the wide-body Airbus
destined for Mexico City

Tags | busiest, chance, connecting, droplets, executives, flu, influenza, london, naked, pandemic, result, scratchy, sneeze, throat